Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
(责任编辑:经济数据)
-
同时高峰时期车辆分布不太合理,可能出现无车可借的情形。...[详细]
-
您也可以得到客户的邮箱,从而与客户取得联系,进行后续跟踪。...[详细]
-
为何网易云音乐这一次能引起如此强烈的共鸣? 1.UGC模式呈现,容易引发共鸣 网易云音乐的乐评一直都“独具匠心”,有时候,大量优质评论所带来的慰藉感甚至大过歌曲本身。...[详细]
-
现有的数据还不包括20后或者30后。...[详细]
-
B2B和B2C虽然有各种区别,但是有一点却一样。...[详细]
-
网易科技讯3月27日消息,今日,在36氪举办的线下沙龙中,keso和老道消息两个评论人对谈互联网的黄金时代——keso,中文名洪波,中国头号Blogger,是马化腾、雷军都...[详细]
-
标普全球:摩根大通、美国银行、花旗银行和富国银行的总资产在短短三个月内激增 6817.1 亿美元
皖天然气比集友股份多募资了约4个亿,发行费用与集友股份相比,仅多出14万元。...[详细]
-
现代人对品牌的要求,不再是“有没有”、“好不好”、产品美不美、产品价值观更重要 一旦你想应对这种人口结构的变化,你就又要问自己一个问题:今天的80...[详细]
-
购物车放弃率指的是客户将商品放入购物车,但是最终由于种种原因而放弃,这些放弃的客户占总访问客户的比率。...[详细]
-
招股书数据显示,截至2014年、2015年末和2016年末,公司存货分别为5745.71万元、5437.59万元和1.33亿元;同期应收账款余额分别为1.28亿元、2.28亿元和3.46亿元,占当...[详细]