The impact of Celestia's TIA unlocking and the over-the-counter trading behind it
- Title: "TIA - an OTC story" Author: Taran Sabharwal, founder of the cryptocurrency over-the-counter trading platform STIX Compiled by: Zombiet
Overview of Net New Supply as of October 31, 2024
We use on chain data (via Celerium API) to accurately determine how unlocking dynamics may shape TIA's price trend in November. The above table shows the results, and we have concluded that a total of $92.3 million TIAs will enter circulation after unlocking, which will become the upper limit of overall spot selling pressure.
The $TIA has a 21 day staking period, and those who wish to unlock the trading TIA on October 31st have already released the staking. The total number of unsecured tokens, tokens in the 21 day staking queue, and approximately 24.1 million tokens that have not been counted is equal to 92.3 million TIAs.
This is equivalent to a maximum selling pressure of approximately $460 million. Equally interesting is that this accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocking volume, which means the selling pressure is only half of what people expected.
Another interesting data is that the ratio of the (actual) increase in circulation supply to the current circulation supply is 41.8%.
The first wave of unlocked tokens was sold to OTC (over-the-counter) buyers who hedged on perpetual contracts, resulting in a surge in open interest over the past few months. We expect these large short positions to continue closing, partially offsetting the pressure of spot selling. This capital reset may be a bullish signal for spot buyers.
The assumption in our analysis is that buyers in OTC rounds have 11 million TIA cliff unlocks, which are included in non collateralized buckets (these tokens come from vault wallets and have not been marked on the browser). We have drawn a total of 292 attributed wallets, some of which were not fully drawn. We have included this gap in the non pledged buckets.
History of $TIA OTC on STIX
Undoubtedly, Celestia is one of the most actively traded assets off the exchange during this cycle, mainly because in the early stages of the cycle, it provides an early bullish opportunity for buyers who crave directional trading. Sellers were also incentivized by a large amount of unrealized profits and losses, and did not anticipate the upcoming bull market (Q3 2023).
In the first quarter of 2024, the bull market has matured and the $TIA has risen above $20. At this time, there is very little off exchange trading activity because sellers are unwilling to accept larger discounts (over 40%), and buyers do not want to bid above the upper limit of $8.5. We hardly saw any activity because the seller "feels" wealthy and wants to maintain risk exposure, even if there is an opportunity to achieve investment returns of 100 to 800 times.
When $TIA fell below $5, the situation changed, and this was also the time when the Celestia Foundation began raising $100 million through OTC at a price of $3. The buyer's attribution criteria are the same as those for private investors - unlocking 33% on October 31st (less than 2 months from the round) and linear unlocking for 12 months.
In the third and fourth quarters of 2024, $TIA's over-the-counter trading activity was very active, and sellers unloaded multiple positions. We traded a large quantity of tokens for the first wave of unlocking and the entire unlocking process. As for STIX, the total transaction volume of $TIA since July is approximately $60 million, which may indicate that the actual transaction volume through various liquidity channels is over $80 million (assuming STIX holds 75% of the OTC market share).
summary
Short positions will continue to close until unlocked, and funding rates may be reset to 0 or positive. Those who missed the deadline for releasing their pledge on October 9th may have already released their pledge in October, leading to a further increase in spot supply in November (ready to be sold). In any case, the supply shock is enormous and one of the most widely spread unlocking events of this cycle, coupled with suppressed off exchange trading discounts, may create significant market volatility for the coin.
Related articles: "Even without unlocking, you can still make a profit! Celestia seed round investors can recoup their investment every 3.5 days by staking rewards" "Celestia just announced the completion of a $100 million financing, and institutions are about to unlock it
(责任编辑:创业研究)
-
文章部分要点如下: 集体决策是决策中最为复杂的一类,我们不仅要考虑个人因素,更要考量社会因素的影响。...[详细]
-
为何厦门的互联网会有今天的局面?雷帝网采访了众多当地的创业者,对方给予了一些回答。...[详细]
-
老话题:传统媒体和媒体转型 纪中展(知识分子):传统媒体人在这轮的新媒体创业和内容付费中并没有优势,(传统媒体的经历)甚至成为束缚。...[详细]
-
直到目前,所有的分时租赁平台里能够做到这两点的,依旧寥寥无几。...[详细]
-
当然,以上是初步分析,具体情况还要通过相关案例来辅证,大家也可以尝试刷刷某个词的一些相关数值,来观察其在微信指数上的指数变化,来确定微信指定的算法原理。...[详细]
-
10月31日华安添悦6个月持有混合C净值增长0.03%,今年来累计上涨2.42%
我们看到很多团队盈利能力很好,每年分红,但如果希望在发展的窗口期内尽快把用户数量做大,那么变现可能会稍微慢一点。...[详细]
-
国外前10虚拟货币交易平台 国外前10虚拟货币交易平台:排名一览
然而这样一款不给钱也能变得更强的免费游戏,必然更受用户的尊重。...[详细]
-
近日,一段曝光俏江南长沙店后厨内幕的视频在网络上疯传,看完真的让人三天都吃不下饭! 后厨手抓偷吃已经做好的菜: 食客吃过的辣椒回收再炒菜: 臭鱼冒充活桂鱼: ...[详细]
-
为什么一向低调的李彦宏愿意参加真人秀了? 过去一年,对李彦宏以及百度而言,可谓是多事之秋,互联网巨头的形象也遭受前所未有的重创,危机四伏。...[详细]
-
成立于2012年2月的和力辰光,先后投资出品了电影《小时代》系列,电视剧《北平无战事》等颇具影响力的作品。...[详细]